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27 December, 2012

Survey shows Palestinians moved toward Hamas's and not Abbas's way, while Israelis stood steadfast in preferences
Findings contained in December 2012 Joint Israeli Palestinian Poll

Kipat Barzel at the operation in Gaza
Kipat Barzel at the operation in Gaza

A new survey reveals Palestinian and Israeli attitudes in the wake of the Israeli operation in Gaza and the recognition by the UN of the Palestinian state as a non-member state.

The attitudes are contained in the most recent poll conducted jointly by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. This joint survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah and Jerusalem.

Among the findings:
Reactions to the Israeli operation in Gaza and the recognition by the UN of the Palestinian state as a non-member state:
*Given the UN recognition of a Palestinian state and the outcome of the war between Hamas and Israel, which is seen by over 80% as a victory of Hamas, 60% of Palestinians prefer Hamas’ way over Abbas’s way (28%) to end the Israeli occupation and build a Palestinian state.
*Correspondingly, there is an increase of 11 percentage points in the choice of armed attack as the best option to force Israel to withdraw from the territories and a 7 point decline in the choice of peaceful non-violent resistance compared to a year ago.
*Compared to three months ago, there is a 7 and 8 percentage point increase in vote intention for Hamas and Haniyeh in legislative and presidential elections, and Haniyeh wins a presidential election if it were to take place now.
*Israeli views of the conflict with the Palestinians are quite sturdy and complex. Their opinions with regard to Israeli options vis a vis the Hamas regime and the shelling from Gaza are the same now, following operation “Pillar of Defence”, as they were following operation “Cast Lead” in 2009.
*The most popular strategy (40%) is for Israel to carry out ad-hoc operations against the shelling and get out.
*A majority of 54% believes that Israel can overthrow the Hamas regime, yet a similar majority of 55% supports the cease-fire with Hamas, and 51% support negotiations with the Hamas government if needed in order to reach a compromise agreement with the Palestinians.
*65% of Israelis consider it impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Palestinians, as do the Palestinians (63%).

Attitudes toward an Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities:
*53% of Israelis support cooperation between the US and Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, and only 20% support a strike by Israel alone without the cooperation of the US; 21% oppose any strike.
*The corresponding figures in the previous polls in September and in June were very similar, with a slight decline in opposition to any strike: 52%, 18% and 24% in September, and 51%, 19% and 26% in June correspondingly.
*Most Palestinians do not think that Israel will carry out a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, if Netanyahu wins the January elections (55%; 34% think Israel will strike).

Sampling data:
The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between December 13 and 15, 2012. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 600 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between December 9 and 13, 2012. The margin of error is 4.5%.

The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir, the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).


 

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